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Opinion | Caitlyn Jenner’s Long Game - POLITICO

Why is Caitlyn Jenner running for governor of California? Judging from her Wednesday evening interview with Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity, she doesn’t have a whole lot of political insight into the state she wants to lead. So instead of the conventional political questions — like what she wants to do or how California might benefit from a Jenner governorship — it might be smarter to ponder what she stands to gain from her candidacy.

In the modern era, running for office has become a job in itself, one that can pay off in ways that have nothing to do with politics. Mike Huckabee, who ran for president twice, used the increased name recognition to earn a handsome living as a Fox News TV host, a successful book author and a public speaker. Jesse Ventura crossed over from wrestling to political office (governor of Minnesota) and onto a career in TV. Presently, Matthew McConaughey is, his critics say, juicing the sales of his new memoir with strong hints that he’ll run for Texas governor.

Jenner has a long career in the public eye checkered with some financial issues but her most recent occupation, reality-show entertainer, has been a winner. She appeared in "Keeping Up With the Kardashians" from 2007 to 2016. It was a popular, lucrative show. According to TMZ, Jenner and family split a $40 million payout when they re-signed their deal for the "Kardashians" show in 2012 for three seasons (she’s returning for the show’s last season) and also had her own two-season program, "I Am Cait" (2015-16).

Like many celebrities, Jenner makes appearance money; again according to TMZ, her speaking fee rose from $25,000 to a rumored $100,000 after she came out as Caitlyn in 2015. But then the Covid-19 pandemic poured molasses into the engine of that gravy train.

Jenner needed a new thing to stay in the public eye, and working the celebrity angle is something she’s excelled at for the past 45 years, ever since winning the decathlon at the 1976 Olympics and was paid by Wheaties to appear on its boxes. She parlayed that name recognition into gigs as a sports commentator, an actor, a talk-show host, various reality roles, and most recently, as a performer, albeit briefly, on "The Masked Singer."

As for a politician? Although a lifelong Republican and a Trump supporter, the 71-year-old performer possesses a flimsy resume; she’s not a natural candidate any more than she is a crooner. The smart money in California says she doesn’t have a chance to unseat Gov. Gavin Newsom, who enjoys the support of 56 percent of the California electorate. (Though the examples of Donald Trump, Al Franken, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sonny Bono suggest you can’t be too sure.) Assuming a Jenner loss, though, let’s contemplate the ways she might profit from this new exposure.

One is literal profit. California candidates can’t spend money on themselves, but the state of California allows candidates huge leeway on how they can spend their political donations, so a candidate can live off it and reward her friends with contracts and jobs. With former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale advising Jenner in the race, it’s easy to imagine a well-financed political campaign, and candidates can throw campaign money at election-night celebrations and other events; attorney fees; cars, computers, meals and gifts. They can buy gratitude by donating to other candidates and charities; they can cover employee salaries, health care and meals and travel for the candidate and staff, as long it conforms to IRS regulations. It’s a real money-go-round. The law even allows candidates to expense a babysitter! Enforcement of California’s campaign finance rules is so lax that if you’re found violating the law you might escape without paying a fine.

But the real long game in American politics now isn’t cash — it’s fame. Think of Jenner’s run as a reality show by other means, a thought we can assume has also occurred to her. Instead of a show on one national channel, her campaign is news, which means she’ll be running on multiple national and local channels. Social media will feast on her. She’s already peppering her 3.5 million Twitter followers with campaign messages and her 1.4 million Facebook friends with the same. Even her campaign controversies — opposing transgender youth sports in an ambush interview — can redound in her favor by boosting her profile higher still.

As a career strategy, this isn’t a cinch. Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, warns that running for office can be a high-risk investment for somebody like Jenner, as it can polarize a celebrity’s base against her. That’s especially true in the liberal environment of California. Kanye West’s presidential run certainly didn’t help his career. But purely as an attention-getting strategy, it may work. “That calculus changes if we think of someone wanting to build their brand,” Kousser says. “The coin of the realm in social media is engagement, and if your business is social media, then doing something that’s going to drive engagement will build your brand and build your fortune.”

The Jenner run could easily spawn a reality documentary if the cameras roll with her on the hustings. It will almost certainly provide her with a topic for another book contract. And it could restart the side-hustle of her speaking tours. So what if the majority of the California electorate votes her down for her Republican views? It’s a big country with a lot of Republicans, a lot of curious people and millions of viewers who have been trained to wonder and care about what the Kardashians and Jenners are up to now. The publicity she creates out West will spread across the nation. Jenner publicity might be like Trump publicity — impervious in the long run to what we once called “bad publicity.” She has little to lose in a gubernatorial campaign and plenty to gain.

And if she really does develop a taste for politics, a November loss for Jenner could set her up for a 2022 run for a congressional seat, where the openings are numerous and the money flows a little quicker. California law prohibits a campaign from paying a candidate for state office a salary, but federal law permits candidates for federal office to draw pay from campaign coffers. The main limit is that the pay not exceed the lesser of the minimum annual salary of the office sought or the candidate’s earned income the previous year. The Center for Public Integrity found that at least 22 candidates paid themselves salaries in the 2017-2018 cycle.

When Jenner informed her daughters Kendall and Kylie that she was appearing on "The Masked Singer," they were appalled. “They gave me this strange look and said ‘Dad, why are you doing this?’,” she told Us Weekly. Jenner ventured something about needing a challenge, but we know better. Performances on the show don’t appear to pay much. The actual reward is publicity, with the contestant figuring out how to convert that into cash — a strategy Jenner has mastered and will continue to perfect.

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Announce your candidacy via email to [email protected] My email alerts hope to run for dog catcher. My Twitter account wants Mike Rowe to run for something. My RSS feed says m-o-n-e-y is just another way to spell p-o-l-i-t-i-c-s.

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